Executive Summary

Q4 2024 revenue was $1.721B (-1% YoY), with a net loss of $47M (vs. $5M net income in Q4 2023) and Adjusted EBITDA of $125M; shipments fell 2% YoY to 328k tons .
Management introduced 2025 guidance of Adjusted EBITDA (ex metal price lag) $600–$630M and Free Cash Flow >$120M, and long-term 2028 targets of $900M Adjusted EBITDA (ex metal price lag) and $300M Free Cash Flow .
Tariffs could make domestically produced U.S. flat-rolled products more competitive; Constellium already announced a U.S. price increase and expects potential tailwinds, although the situation remains fluid and not included in guidance .
Key Q4 headwinds: tight scrap spreads in North America (estimated $15–$20M per quarter headwind in P&ARP), flood-related impacts at Valais ($15M EBITDA, $39M FCF), and automotive weakness, especially Europe; positive non-cash metal price lag was +$27M in Q4 .
Note: An 8-K 2.02 filing was not available; this recap is based on the official Q4 press release and the full earnings call transcript .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Positive non-cash metal price lag (+$27M) supported reported Adjusted EBITDA; management highlighted the “pass-through” business model minimizing exposure to metal price risk .
Recycling capacity and technology advancing: Neuf‑Brisach recycling/casting center started in September and delivered qualified coils to Crown (adds 130k tons/yr capacity; total recycling capacity ~735k tons); industrial LIBS scrap sorting achieved >95% alloy purity to boost circularity .
Cost discipline actions (Vision ’25) accelerated; 2025 run-rate savings expected to step up, with holdings & corporate expense guided at ~$40M in 2025 .

What Went Wrong

Tight North American scrap spreads pressured P&ARP margins; management estimated a $15–$20M per quarter headwind under current market conditions .
Flood in Valais disrupted A&T and AS&I: Q4 impact -$15M on Adjusted EBITDA and -$39M on FCF; full-year 2024 impact -$33M EBITDA and -$45M FCF (insurance proceeds below EBITDA) .
Demand weakness across most end markets, notably automotive in Europe and certain industrial/specialties, drove lower shipments and unfavorable price/mix, contributing to a $47M net loss and lower segment EBITDA YoY .

Financial Results

Consolidated Performance vs Prior Year (YoY)

Metric	Q4 2023	Q4 2024	YoY Change
Revenue ($USD Billions)	$1.732	$1.721	-1%
Net Income ($USD Millions)	$5	-$47	n.m.
Diluted EPS ($USD)	$0.02	-$0.34	n.m.
Shipments (k metric tons)	336	328	-2%
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	164	125	-$39
Cash from Operations ($USD Millions)	173	61	-$112
Free Cash Flow ($USD Millions)	36	-85	n.m.
Net Income Margin (%)	0.3% (5/1,732)	-2.7% (47/1,721)	n.m.

Notes: Adjusted EBITDA includes the non-cash metal price lag (+$27M in Q4 2024; -$14M in Q4 2023) .

Segment Breakdown (Q4 2024)

Segment	Shipments (kT)	Revenue ($M)	Segment Adjusted EBITDA ($M)	EBITDA per metric ton ($/t)
Aerospace & Transportation (A&T)	44	430	56	1,271
Packaging & Automotive Rolled Products (P&ARP)	239	1,009	56	234
Automotive Structures & Industry (AS&I)	44	329	4	91
Holdings & Corporate (H&C)	—	—	-18	—

Metal price lag (non-cash) in Q4 2024: +$27M .

Product-Line Revenue and Shipments (Q4 2024)

Product Line	Shipments (kT)	Revenue ($M)
Packaging rolled products	179	722
Automotive rolled products	56	265
Specialty & other thin-rolled	4	22
Aerospace rolled products	22	265
Transportation, industry & defense (TID) rolled	22	165
Automotive extruded products	29	218
Other extruded products	15	111
Other & inter-segment eliminations	—	-46
Total	328	1,721

KPIs and Balance Sheet (Q4 2024)

KPI	Q4 2024	Q4 2023 / Reference
Metal price lag (non-cash) ($M)	+27	-14
Valais flood impact (Q4)	-$15M EBITDA, -$39M FCF	—
Liquidity ($M)	$727	—
Net Debt ($M)	$1,776	$1,704 (12/31/23)
Leverage (Net Debt / LTM Segment Adj. EBITDA ex metal lag)	3.1x	2.9x ex-Valais
Shares repurchased (Q4)	~1.6M for $18.5M	—

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Adjusted EBITDA (ex metal price lag)	FY 2025	Target “over €800M” delayed pending market recovery (Q3)	$600–$630M	Reset lower and formalized (currency change to USD)
Free Cash Flow	FY 2025	Not provided in Q3	>$120M	New
Long-term Adjusted EBITDA (ex metal price lag)	FY 2028	Not provided	$900M	New
Long-term Free Cash Flow	FY 2028	Not provided	$300M	New
Holdings & Corporate expense	FY 2025	~ —	~$40M	New detail
CapEx	FY 2025	~ —	~$330M	New detail
Cash interest / Cash taxes	FY 2025	~ —	~$120M / ~$40M	New detail

Notes: Company shifted reporting to U.S. GAAP and USD; prior period guidance in EUR was paused/delayed amid Valais flood and market weakness .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q2 2024)	Previous Mentions (Q3 2024)	Current Period (Q4 2024)	Trend
Scrap spreads (North America)	Unfavorable metal costs at Muscle Shoals; P&ARP pressure	Tightening spreads; headwind persists	$15–$20M per quarter headwind; expected to continue through 2025	Worsening then sustained headwind
Valais flood recovery	Severe flood; operations suspended; insurance estimate; guidance paused	Partial restart; ramp to Q1’25; Q3 impact €17M EBITDA	On track to complete ramp by end of Q1’25; Q4 impact -$15M EBITDA, -$39M FCF	Recovery underway
Aerospace supply chain	Demand strong; stable shipments	OEM supply chain challenges; slowing	Destocking risk; mix weaker; cautious shipments	Moderating near term
Packaging demand	Continued improvement	Healthy in both regions	Healthy in NA/EU; contributes tailwind	Stable/positive
Automotive demand (EU/NA)	NA stable; EU weakening	North America softened; Europe weakness accelerated	Weak in both regions; Europe notably soft in luxury/EV	Deteriorating
Tariffs/macro	Not highlighted	Not highlighted	Section 232 tariffs potentially net positive (domestic competitiveness), but fluid; price increase announced	Emerging potential tailwind
Cost program (Vision ’25)	Cost actions underway	Accelerated; leverage at 2.8x	Savings to increase in 2025; H&C ~$40M	Strengthening
Recycling/technology	—	Recycling center grand opening (Sept) [26 in List]	Crown coil qualification (Nov), LIBS scrap sorting at scale (Nov)	Advancing execution

Management Commentary

“2024 was a very challenging year... from extreme cold at Muscle Shoals... to severe flooding at Valais... to demand weakness across most end markets and tightening scrap spreads in North America.”
“We expect Adjusted EBITDA to be $600–$630 million [ex metal price lag] and Free Cash Flow in excess of $120 million in 2025... For 2028, Adjusted EBITDA of $900 million [ex metal lag] and Free Cash Flow of $300 million.”
“Tariffs will make domestically produced products more competitive, and we should benefit... we announced a price increase for all flat‑rolled products shipped in the U.S.”
“We accelerated our cost reduction efforts... we’re confident in our ability to rightsize our cost structure for the current demand environment.”

Q&A Highlights

Cadence of 2025 guidance: First quarter weaker (seasonality, residual Valais costs), stronger mid-year as cost initiatives and operational improvements ramp; buyback program continues given comfortable liquidity/leverage .
Market assumptions in guidance: Aerospace stable with weaker mix; automotive down in NA and EU; packaging improving; TID improving esp. NA (tariff tailwinds) .
Scrap spreads: 2025 headwind consistent with ~$15–$20M per quarter in North America; Europe tighter but manageable; scrap remains structurally tight but not worsening beyond 2025 .
FX sensitivity: Guidance assumes USD strength remains; stronger EUR would be a tailwind in future periods .

Estimates Context

S&P Global consensus estimates for Q4 2024 EPS, revenue, and EBITDA were not available at time of this analysis due to access limits; therefore, explicit comparisons to Wall Street consensus cannot be provided. Values would have been retrieved from S&P Global.
Given the absence of consensus, we anchor on reported GAAP and non-GAAP results and management guidance .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Near-term headwinds persist (tight scrap spreads, EU auto weakness, aerospace mix), but cost actions and operational improvements are expected to drive a stronger mid‑2025 setup; Q1 seasonality and residual flood costs imply softer start .
Tariff regime could create demand/pricing tailwinds for domestically produced U.S. flat‑rolled products; Constellium moved promptly with a U.S. price increase and expects opportunities beginning as early as Q2 .
Balance sheet/liquidity remain solid ($727M liquidity; net debt $1.776B); leverage at 3.1x (2.9x ex‑Valais), with free cash flow >$120M targeted in 2025 supporting buybacks .
Recycling/circularity strategy is delivering: Neuf‑Brisach adds 130k tons/yr capacity and qualified coils for Crown; LIBS tech enhances automotive scrap recovery, underpinning margin resilience and customer sustainability .
2025 Adjusted EBITDA guidance (ex metal lag) reset to $600–$630M with prudence on end‑markets; 2028 targets ($900M EBITDA ex lag; $300M FCF) frame medium‑term upside as investments and market normalization accrue .
Segment watch: P&ARP margin pressure from scrap spreads; A&T stabilizing but mix softer; AS&I recovering with Valais ramp; monitor tariffs’ net impact and the cadence of aerospace repricing from Q2 .
Execution catalysts: realization of Vision ’25 savings, Muscle Shoals performance recovery, tariff pass‑throughs, and continued recycling-driven product qualifications .

CONSTELLIUM SE (CSTM)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary